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Insurance industry: When will the inflection point of the insurance industry come? Category: Industry Institution: Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Yifeng Date: 2021-07-23 The insurance sector in the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2021, A -share insurance stocks all fell. Compared with the performance of H -shares, the insurance sector was losing a large market, and the valuation center of various insurance companies continued to approach the historical low. In terms of personal insurance, the definition of new and old critical illness insurance definition and switching. Following the rapid growth of premiums in early 2021, the subsequent support is insufficient and the premium growth rate is under pressure. In terms of property insurance, the pressure on the comprehensive reform of the auto insurance continues, the auto insurance premiums are under pressure, non -auto insurance, and non -auto insurance. The proportion increases and supports the overall premium; in terms of investment, the long -term interest rate shocks have increased down superimposed on the market fluctuations, and the insurance index is lowered. Stock innovation enters the bottleneck, and the problem of manpower channels is gradually prominent. In the past, the driving force for the extensive development of the insurance industry mainly lies in product innovation and policy guidelines. The essential problems of human channels have always existed, but it has not been exposed in the past. Investment insurance and universal insurance development pressure, the average unit price of millions of medical parts and the fixed growth of life insurance every year to limit its scale space and profits. The preferential discounts of the tax and excellent tax policies are less attractive. Product demand is released in advance, resulting in the sales of new products less than expected. The insurance industry urgently needs new high -business value rate products to increase short -term performance, but there are no new sales products that meet the core needs of the market. Therefore, the extensive development of manpower channels has gradually become highlighted, and the reform of the insurance industry is imperative. Thisy is the first stage of the reform of domestic insurance companies' agency channels. AIA China's optimal agent reform performance results experience experience experience: (1) The decline stage of the number of agents (2010-2013): annualized new premiums decreased, the per capita ANP maintained growth, but the per capita VONB growth rate fell; (2) agent agent The rapid increase in the number of people (2014-2018): The annualized new premiums increased rapidly, and the per capita ANP and the per capita VONB growth rate fell first and then increased; ANP and per capita VONB have maintained steady growth. On the whole, although the domestic insurance companies actively promote the reform of agency channels, domestic insurance companies are still in the first stage. The inflection point of development still needs to be waited. We believe that the insurance industry may usher in an inflection point in half a year to one year: 1. Three main lines of supply -side transformation in the future: channel transformation, technology empowerment, and industrial collaboration. (1) In terms of channel transformation, in recent years, the academic structure of insurance marketers has gradually optimized, and the overall quality of the marketing of marketers has risen, and the growth rate of insurance agents has changed periodically. At present, the manpower is close to the end. A new round of increment appeared. (2) In terms of scientific and technological empowerment, Zhongan adheres to the technology empowerment strategy, builds the "product system" development model, the Internet channels have expanded rapidly, the comprehensive cost rate has continued to decrease, the cost reduction is successfully reduced, and domestic listed insurance companies are also active. Promoting technology empowerment, the industry is expected to break through the demographic dividend cycle in the future, and further expand the sinking market through science and technology empowerment the Internet. (3) Industrial collaboration: Each insurance company builds the health care industry chain, uses the community to attract customers, and uses "products services" to enhance customer stickiness, thereby promoting the sales of pension and health insurance products, and boosting NBV. 2. Demand side: The density of insurance density is backward, the life insurance guarantee gap is huge, the future development space of the elderly market is broad, and the people's awareness of insurance will gradually increase after the epidemic, and the market is expected to further expand. 3. Investment end: In the short term, the equity market is expected to recover the revenue of equity investment income to help the valuation of the insurance stocks; in the long run, the investment of insurance companies still maintains a stable solidarity asset. The trend is down, but the gap between the asset -liabilities has gradually narrowed, and it is still optimistic about the asset side's role in boosting valuation. Investment recommendations: The recommended dividend rate is high and the valuation is low, the transformation of life insurance is continuously deepened, and China Taibao (601601.SH/2601.HK) actively deployed the "insurance health pension" industry; The field of science and technology is the most stable value, and Ping An (601318.SH/2318.HK), which has actively promoted the transformation; 6060.HK); Focusing on the high -end market, the business quality of the agent is high, and the value of new business value contains value -containing operating profits increases year by year. China Property
Insurance industry: When will the inflection point of the insurance industry come?
Category: Industry Institution: Everbright Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Yifeng Date: 2021-07-23
The insurance sector in the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2021, A -share insurance stocks all fell. Compared with the performance of H -shares, the insurance sector was losing a large market, and the valuation center of various insurance companies continued to approach the historical low. In terms of personal insurance, the definition of new and old critical illness insurance definition and switching. Following the rapid growth of premiums in early 2021, the subsequent support is insufficient and the premium growth rate is under pressure. In terms of property insurance, the pressure on the comprehensive reform of the auto insurance continues, the auto insurance premiums are under pressure, non -auto insurance, and non -auto insurance. The proportion increases and supports the overall premium; in terms of investment, the long -term interest rate shocks have increased down superimposed on the market fluctuations, and the insurance index is lowered.
Stock innovation enters the bottleneck, and the problem of manpower channels is gradually prominent. In the past, the driving force for the extensive development of the insurance industry mainly lies in product innovation and policy guidelines. The essential problems of human channels have always existed, but it has not been exposed in the past. Investment insurance and universal insurance development pressure, the average unit price of millions of medical parts and the fixed growth of life insurance every year to limit its scale space and profits. The preferential discounts of the tax and excellent tax policies are less attractive. Product demand is released in advance, resulting in the sales of new products less than expected. The insurance industry urgently needs new high -business value rate products to increase short -term performance, but there are no new sales products that meet the core needs of the market. Therefore, the extensive development of manpower channels has gradually become highlighted, and the reform of the insurance industry is imperative.
Thisy is the first stage of the reform of domestic insurance companies' agency channels. AIA China's optimal agent reform performance results experience experience experience: (1) The decline stage of the number of agents (2010-2013): annualized new premiums decreased, the per capita ANP maintained growth, but the per capita VONB growth rate fell; (2) agent agent The rapid increase in the number of people (2014-2018): The annualized new premiums increased rapidly, and the per capita ANP and the per capita VONB growth rate fell first and then increased; ANP and per capita VONB have maintained steady growth. On the whole, although the domestic insurance companies actively promote the reform of agency channels, domestic insurance companies are still in the first stage. The inflection point of development still needs to be waited.
We believe that the insurance industry may usher in an inflection point in half a year to one year: 1. Three main lines of supply -side transformation in the future: channel transformation, technology empowerment, and industrial collaboration. (1) In terms of channel transformation, in recent years, the academic structure of insurance marketers has gradually optimized, and the overall quality of the marketing of marketers has risen, and the growth rate of insurance agents has changed periodically. At present, the manpower is close to the end. A new round of increment appeared. (2) In terms of scientific and technological empowerment, Zhongan adheres to the technology empowerment strategy, builds the "product system" development model, the Internet channels have expanded rapidly, the comprehensive cost rate has continued to decrease, the cost reduction is successfully reduced, and domestic listed insurance companies are also active. Promoting technology empowerment, the industry is expected to break through the demographic dividend cycle in the future, and further expand the sinking market through science and technology empowerment the Internet. (3) Industrial collaboration: Each insurance company builds the health care industry chain, uses the community to attract customers, and uses "products services" to enhance customer stickiness, thereby promoting the sales of pension and health insurance products, and boosting NBV. 2. Demand side: The density of insurance density is backward, the life insurance guarantee gap is huge, the future development space of the elderly market is broad, and the people's awareness of insurance will gradually increase after the epidemic, and the market is expected to further expand. 3. Investment end: In the short term, the equity market is expected to recover the revenue of equity investment income to help the valuation of the insurance stocks; in the long run, the investment of insurance companies still maintains a stable solidarity asset. The trend is down, but the gap between the asset -liabilities has gradually narrowed, and it is still optimistic about the asset side's role in boosting valuation.
Investment recommendations: The recommended dividend rate is high and the valuation is low, the transformation of life insurance is continuously deepened, and China Taibao (601601.SH/2601.HK) actively deployed the "insurance health pension" industry; The field of science and technology is the most stable value, and Ping An (601318.SH/2318.HK), which has actively promoted the transformation; 6060.HK); Focusing on the high -end market, the business quality of the agent is high, and the value of new business value contains value -containing operating profits increases year by year. China Property